In This Issue...
Last Week in Review: Consumers are feeling good, but how good was last week's news?
Forecast for the Week: It's a holiday shortened week, but the economic calendar is full. News on manufacturing, inflation, and housing is ahead.
View: Wondering what the housing trends for 2012 will be? Check out 11 trends we saw in 2011.
Last Week In Review...
"Happy days are here again." Milton Ager and Jack Yellen. And while it seems that consumers are certainly feeling happier, not everything that happened last week was cause for song.
There was good news last Friday, as the first look at Consumer Sentiment for January came in at 74.0, which is the highest level since May 2011. However, there was also news last week that the holiday shopping season may not have been as robust as previously thought.
Retail Sales in December rose by a meager 0.1% from 0.4% in November, and when stripping out autos, sales actually fell 0.2%. Why did this happen? It seems that steep holiday discounting held down the value of goods sold, so sales were big, but only because of the heavy discounting.
The news out of Europe last week also wasn't too happy. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde met to discuss and finalize the debt restructuring deal for Greece. Back in October, a deal called for Bondholders to "accept" a 50% haircut on the face value of the Greek debt - but as creditors and authorities have started to forge a final deal, the actual haircut back to investors is looking quite likely to be larger than 50%. This is simply because worsening financial conditions in the Greek economy make paying the debt back with "just" a 50% haircut highly unlikely...maybe impossible. What's more, the next reasonable question to consider is will Ireland, Portugal and even Italy ask for a similar haircut or deal on what may be unsustainable debt in their countries?
The happy news is that these problems are finally being addressed to make things better in the future. And in the short term, the uncertainty should keep money flowing into the relative safe haven of the US Dollar and US Bonds - including Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied. In addition, Mortgage Bonds continue to be supported by the Fed's purchases, which are also helping to keep home loan rates at record low levels.
All of this means that now continues to remain a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.
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